12/10/2025 — Finding Opportunity in Distress, Volatility & the Maturity Cliff

On this Commercial Call, we broke down the current state of the commercial and multifamily market, highlighting where values, rents, and transactions truly stand. The group explored how new supply, stalled refinances, and shifting asset volatility are reshaping opportunities. We also covered practical strategies for sourcing off-market deals and navigating the coming maturity cliff.

• Market Conditions: Multifamily values remain 20–40% below peak; only Class A and distress are trading, while B/C assets are frozen.

• Rent Compression: Driven by new supply from 2021–22 permits; expected to normalize within a year, followed by strong rent growth.

• Refinance Stress: The maturity cliff is forcing tough refinances, sponsor pay-downs, or alternative lending (CMBS, bridge-to-HUD).

• Asset Volatility: Storage and multifamily are high-volatility; open-air retail and industrial offer long-term stability via 10–25-year leases.

• Deal Sourcing: Direct-to-owner remains best; focus on mom-and-pop portfolios and use mortgage docs + AI to identify LLC owners.

• Next Steps: Connect with lenders (Chris Litzler), automate LLC-owner search tasks, and leverage the San Diego CG event hot-seat format.